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5〜10年で変化しそうなもの

生活者

 人口の減少と、高齢化が顕著に表れ始めるか。一世帯あたりの世帯人員比率も家族構成が減り、結婚しない独身と高齢者のシングル世帯が増えそうだ。電気・水道・ガスと言った生活に必要な物は、複数の人間で共有することで効率が上がるが、一人だけだと可処分所得が減る。年金や医療と言った社会保障費も負担が増え、将来への不安から消費には繋がらず、貯蓄に回りそうです。




流通業

 大規模ショッピングセンターは、法改正の影響もあり、新に開店する店舗は少ないだろうな。eコマースの伸びで、実店舗へ足を運んでもらうためのインセンティブとして、さらにエンターテインメントショッピングの深化、ブランディングによる差別化が必要になるのでは?。
 地域にあるお店は、毎日使うデイリーの商品を置くお店と、趣味性のある専門領域への特化と、お店のブランディングが集客を左右しそうで、一層Webを使ってのマーケティングが必要とされてくるでしょう。必要と思っても一朝一夕に出来る物ではありませんので、生き残りを念頭にブランディングの強化を今のうちから行う必要がありますよ。
 eコマースでは定規の標準化が求められますね。




ソフトウェア

 パソコンにインストールして使うと言った、商品販売の概念をGoogleがドキュメント&スプレッドシートと言うサービスで変えてしまいましたので、物を売る小売りからブラウザー経由のサービスとして、利用料徴収という形に変わっていくのではないかと思います。特に考えられるのが会計ソフトですかね。




クルマ

 今回のガソリン高騰の影響により、クルマは走行性能に一層の効率化を求められるだろうな。以前乗っていた3リッターV6エンジンを積んだ、ヨーロッパメーカーのセダン。都内(市街地)走行で実質リッターあたり4〜5kmと言った所だったでしょうか。内燃機関の効率化だけでは良いところ後6%ぐらい、と知り合いのエンジニアは話していた。でもハイブリッドやディーゼルなどで、リッター7〜8kmぐらい(10・15モードで11〜12kmくらい)が主流になるか。でも、排気量が3リッターを超えるプレミアムセダンなどは、今よりもマーケットは萎む変わりに、1.4リッター〜2リッターくらいのクルマが増えそう、そのクラスでプレミアム感、利益をを出す新車投入か。
 排気量が2リッター前後とすると、エンジン形式は直列4気筒だろうから、振動や静寂性を謳う技術がマーケットを左右するか?




家電

 液晶テレビで北米市場シェアトップを誇る米Vizio社が、日本市場にも参入ですって。Vizio社って確か、製品の企画と設計のみを行うファブレスメーカーで、台湾のメーカーで製品にした物を売るらしく、パソコンでやった方式を家電でも、って所でしょうか。でも42インチの液晶テレビで店頭価格10万円を切る9万8000円は凄く魅力、日本ではアメリカ系販売店のコストコで販売するらしい、コモディティ化した技術で差別化は難しいですね、日本の家電メーカーに対しての黒船到来となるか。

 いずれにしても生活者には堅実な生活が求められそうです。でも消費者のそんな“何となく不況感”で財布のひもを縛ると、本当の不況になるそうですから、ほどほどにですかね。




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